Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
