Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
